Week 8 (March 10-12): Why the War? Truth and
Consequences
The News:
Two years ago:
- 2
Suicide Bombers Kill 93 in Iraq, AP
March 6, 2007
- Baghdad
Car Bomb Kills 20 on Booksellers’ Row,
NYT March 6, 2007
- In Baghdad,
Sectarian Lines Too Deadly to Cross,
NYT March 4, 2007
- Enough
gladiator games, the Middle East must talk, op ed by Rami Khouri, Daily
Star (Beirut), March 3, 2007
The Models of Foreign Policy Decision
Making
- rational actor
- bureaucratic politics
- "groupthink"
- pluralist - interest groups. such as arms
contractors, lobbies - eg. China Lobby, AIPAC, Greek lobby, etc.
- Gerald Ford and Turkish invasion of Cyprus
1974
- elite theory: old boy school ties vs.
democracy, upward mobility, and new minorities - names like
Kissinger and Brzezinski! Intellectual elites: "Liberal"
establishment? Blue vs Red states?
- social constructivist: daemonizing Saddam!
(our social practices?! cf. American
Orientalism)
- prospect theory vs ratioonal actor theory:
minimize losses by taking risks whereas avoid risks to preserve
gains. Status quo conservative, "risk-averse" states vs. those who
may feel they have nothing to lose?
Policy issue may determine the model:
As you do your readings for this week, you
may ask whether the decision to go to war in Iraq in March 2003 was
an illustration of "groupthink" (insulated even from CIA analysis -
see James Risen's book, reviewed here by Dean Lawrence R. Velvel, also try George Packer's
Assassins' Gate and his recent
reflections)
Historical Background to "The War of the
Imagination" (Danner's term)
- Iranian Revolution of 1979 (also the year
Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty, the Grand Mosque of Mecca
was captured by Saudi dissidents, and the Soviets invaded
Afghanistan)
- Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988
- Iraqi occupation of Kuwait August 2, 1990;
Desert Shield and Desert Storm
- Why did the Coalition not go all the way to
Baghdad? - legacies of the US marines in Beirut, 1982-1984.
-
Comparisons between Beirut 1982-84 and
Baghdad 2003-07
- background of civil war in Lebanon, 1975-90 - ethnic
divisions, overrepresentation of
Christians (Maronite president, Sunni prime minister, Shi'ite
Speaker of the National Assembly); Palestinian military presence
1971-82
- Israeli invasion of Lebanon - "Operation Big
Pines" - June 6,1982 and siege of Beirut and Palesinian Liberation Organization. (I evacuated W
Beirut around June 25 but some colleagues at AUB stayed on)
- US marines (with Italians and French) to
Beirut August 25, 1982, to supervise Yasser Arafat and PLO
departure to Tunis - see President Ronald Reagan's explanation
(mission
creep)
- assassination of President elect Bechir
Gemayel, Sept 14, 1982.
- Sabra and Shatila massacre of "nearly"
(Little, p 246) or well over (Robert Fisk) 1000 Palestinians (and
Lebanese Shi'ites) Sept 16-18, 1982; return of up to 1200 US
marines, French, Italians, some British troops
- Lebanese-Israeli peace treaty? Suicide bombing
US embassy in April 1983
- Lebanese-Israeli peace treaty signed May 1983,
but never ratified by President Amin Gemanyel
- Late summer 1983 USS New Jersey shelling of
Druze opponents of Gemayel government
- October 23, 1983 suicide bombing kills 241 US
marines - see Reagan statement of Oct 24 - BUT
- February 7, 1984 "strategic redeployment" of
the marines
- AUB president Malcolm Kerr assassinated,
kidnappings of American scholars and missionaries April 1984
through 1987 - leading to Iran-Contra
Affair of selling arms to Iran in
exchange for hostages and funds to supply Nicaraguan Contras
(forbidden by US Congress, Boland Amendment of 1982)
- The problem of Lebanon : what comes after
the Syrian/Saudi peace of 1990-2005?
-
March 10, 2009 Department
of Government, College
of Liberal Arts, University of Texas at
Austin.
- Questions, Comments, and Suggestions to
chenry@mail.utexas.edu
